Accession Number : ADA017565

Title :   An Analysis of the Naval Personnel Pay Predictor (Enlisted Model).

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,


Personal Author(s) : Walker,Allan Ray

Report Date : SEP 1975

Pagination or Media Count : 52

Abstract : The Naval Personnel Pay Predictor (Enlisted Model) is used by the Bureau of Naval Personnel as a tool for predicting the total annual basic pay for the enlisted force as an input to the budget process. A major source of error in the model was found to be the prediction of the length of service (LOS) vector, and an attempt to improve this prediction was made. The extreme complexity of the model was found to be unnecessary, and a simple exponential smoothing subroutine for LOS prediction did as well or better than the original model. It was also found that a double exponential smoothing subroutine, taking into account the trends in the force structure, would almost uniformly improve the one year prediction from the model.

Descriptors :   *Naval personnel, *Salaries, Force level, Enlisted personnel, Models, Military budgets, Theses, Computer programs, Mathematical prediction

Subject Categories : Personnel Management and Labor Relations

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE