Accession Number : ADA017565
Title : An Analysis of the Naval Personnel Pay Predictor (Enlisted Model).
Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,
Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
Personal Author(s) : Walker,Allan Ray
Report Date : SEP 1975
Pagination or Media Count : 52
Abstract : The Naval Personnel Pay Predictor (Enlisted Model) is used by the Bureau of Naval Personnel as a tool for predicting the total annual basic pay for the enlisted force as an input to the budget process. A major source of error in the model was found to be the prediction of the length of service (LOS) vector, and an attempt to improve this prediction was made. The extreme complexity of the model was found to be unnecessary, and a simple exponential smoothing subroutine for LOS prediction did as well or better than the original model. It was also found that a double exponential smoothing subroutine, taking into account the trends in the force structure, would almost uniformly improve the one year prediction from the model.
Descriptors : *Naval personnel, *Salaries, Force level, Enlisted personnel, Models, Military budgets, Theses, Computer programs, Mathematical prediction
Subject Categories : Personnel Management and Labor Relations
Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE