Accession Number : ADA039393

Title :   Progress Report on the Development of an Integrated Crisis Warning System.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept. 1 Jan-30 Sep 76,

Corporate Author : DECISIONS AND DESIGNS INC MCLEAN VA

Personal Author(s) : Andriole,Stephen J.

Report Date : DEC 1976

Pagination or Media Count : 114

Abstract : This report summarizes the progress toward the development of an integrated crisis warning system. During the first phase of this contract year, a fully integrated system comprised of (1) quantitative military, political, and economic crisis indicators; (2) quantitative indicators of U.S. military, political, and economic interests abroad; (3) a unified multi-method forecasting capability; and (4) a computer base was developed. The range of crisis indicators found within the integrated system includes internal (domestic) and external (international and global) static and dynamic military, political, and economic indicators. The system is also comprised of quantitative indicators of U.S. national interests. The unified multi-method forecasting capability requires the system to generate different kinds of forecasts or warnings via different methods for different events and conditions. The system's computer base must be capable of efficiently storing, retrieving, processing, and displaying large quantities of information. An integrated system should enable a user to generate forecasts or warnings on regional, country-by-country, or national interest bases. It should also permit more specific, country-by-country scanning, as well as examination of specific indicators in the context of specific situations over extended or relatively brief periods of time. Progress regarding the development of the prototype crisis early warning system may be understood in terms of the identification and specification of quantitative indicators for crisis warning, an associative forecasting capability, and a computer base.

Descriptors :   *DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, *CRISIS MANAGEMENT, *INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, COMPUTER PROGRAMS, DATA BASES, FOREIGN POLICY, METHODOLOGY, WARFARE, GLOBAL, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, POLITICAL SCIENCE, UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, EMERGENCIES, DECISION MAKING, GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN), MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), PROBABILITY, FORECASTING, RELIABILITY, BEHAVIOR, CYBERNETICS, EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS.

Subject Categories : GOVERNMENT AND POLITICAL SCIENCE

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

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