
Accession Number : ADA111807
Title : A Bayesian Interpretation of Data Trimming to Remove Excess Claims,
Corporate Author : CALIFORNIA UNIV BERKELEY
Personal Author(s) : Jewell,William S
PDF Url : ADA111807
Report Date : Mar 1981
Pagination or Media Count : 12
Abstract : The effect of excess or catastrophic claims is well recognized in insurance. For example, in experience rating it is customary to truncate the data to minimize the effect of such outliers; Gisler has recently proposed a credibility formula using such data trimming. This paper develops a model of the excess claims process and finds the exact Bayesian forecast. The resulting forecast form is approximately a data trim, thus justifying the simpler, heuristic approach.
Descriptors : *Insurance, *Bayes theorem, *Forecasting, Truncation, Heuristic methods, Formulas(Mathematics), Decision making, Mathematical models
Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
Statistics and Probability
Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE