Accession Number : ADA111807

Title :   A Bayesian Interpretation of Data Trimming to Remove Excess Claims,


Personal Author(s) : Jewell,William S

PDF Url : ADA111807

Report Date : Mar 1981

Pagination or Media Count : 12

Abstract : The effect of excess or catastrophic claims is well recognized in insurance. For example, in experience rating it is customary to truncate the data to minimize the effect of such outliers; Gisler has recently proposed a credibility formula using such data trimming. This paper develops a model of the excess claims process and finds the exact Bayesian forecast. The resulting forecast form is approximately a data trim, thus justifying the simpler, heuristic approach.

Descriptors :   *Insurance, *Bayes theorem, *Forecasting, Truncation, Heuristic methods, Formulas(Mathematics), Decision making, Mathematical models

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE