
Accession Number : ADA112169
Title : Reconciling Continuous Probability Assessments.
Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,
Corporate Author : DECISION SCIENCE CONSORTIUM INC FALLS CHURCH VA
Personal Author(s) : Lindley,D V
PDF Url : ADA112169
Report Date : Oct 1981
Pagination or Media Count : 45
Abstract : Several subjects each provide a mean and a standard deviation for a single uncertain quantity, expressing thereby their own opinions of the value of the quantity. In the paper we discuss the problem of incorporating all these judgments into a single probability distribution for the quantity. Under simple, normal assumptions the resulting procedure is least squares. Disadvantages of this are alleviated by using t, instead of normal, distributions. Further refinements incorporate extra information provided by the standard deviations. These lead to nonnormal distributions and improvements to least squares. (Author)
Descriptors : *Probability distribution functions, *Least squares method, Continuity, Incoherence, Decision making, Bayes theorem, Quantity, Test and evaluation, Mean, Standard deviation
Subject Categories : Statistics and Probability
Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE