Accession Number : ADA112169

Title :   Reconciling Continuous Probability Assessments.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : DECISION SCIENCE CONSORTIUM INC FALLS CHURCH VA

Personal Author(s) : Lindley,D V

PDF Url : ADA112169

Report Date : Oct 1981

Pagination or Media Count : 45

Abstract : Several subjects each provide a mean and a standard deviation for a single uncertain quantity, expressing thereby their own opinions of the value of the quantity. In the paper we discuss the problem of incorporating all these judgments into a single probability distribution for the quantity. Under simple, normal assumptions the resulting procedure is least squares. Disadvantages of this are alleviated by using t-, instead of normal, distributions. Further refinements incorporate extra information provided by the standard deviations. These lead to nonnormal distributions and improvements to least squares. (Author)

Descriptors :   *Probability distribution functions, *Least squares method, Continuity, Incoherence, Decision making, Bayes theorem, Quantity, Test and evaluation, Mean, Standard deviation

Subject Categories : Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE