Accession Number : ADA114099

Title :   Reliability Growth of Continuous Systems.

Descriptive Note : Final technical rept. 10 Feb 81-12 Feb 82,


Personal Author(s) : Penrod,Darrell D

PDF Url : ADA114099

Report Date : 08 Feb 1982

Pagination or Media Count : 27

Abstract : A three-parameter reliability growth model is developed for continuous systems, which model assumes failure rates are improved only after each failure and times between failures are exponential. The basic model is given by lambda sub n = lambda sub u + alpha n (lambda sub o - lambda sub u) where lambda sub n is the failure rate after the nth failure, lambda sub o is the initial failure rate, lambda sub u is the ultimate failure rate, and alpha is a shape parameter. Both maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods of estimating the parameters from test data were investigated. Use of the model for assessment and prediction are addressed and some comparisons are made with the AMSAA model currently in use. (Author)

Descriptors :   *Mathematical models, *Reliability, *Failure, *Mathematical prediction, *Models, Parameters, Markov processes, Bayes theorem, Estimates, Planning, Poisson density functions, Probability density functions, Monte Carlo method, Exponential functions, Special functions(Mathematical), Differential equations, Approximation(Mathematics), Growth(General), Statistical tests, Tables(Data), Maximum likelihood estimation, Comparison, Modification

Subject Categories : Statistics and Probability
      Mfg & Industrial Eng & Control of Product Sys

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE