Accession Number : ADA115656

Title :   Forecasting International Affairs: An Empirical Test of a Markov Renewal Model.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,


Personal Author(s) : Chinnis,James O , Jr

PDF Url : ADA115656

Report Date : Jun 1982

Pagination or Media Count : 75

Abstract : A major difficulty for designers of systems to forecast international affairs has been to allow the use of both observable data and subjective estimates. Under DARPA sponsorship, a novel approach has been developed by other contractors based upon a Bayesian stochastic model. The present report discusses an experimental test of the approach in an actual intelligence setting. In this experiment, both direct subject probabilistic forecasts and those generated by computer models performed well. There was some suggestion that the direct assessments might be better for short-term forecasts and that the computer models might be most valuable in longer-term forecasting (30 days and longer) in dynamic situations. (Author)

Descriptors :   *International relations, *Forecasting, *Bayes theorem, *Mathematical models, *Stochastic processes, Markov processes, Validation, Computerized simulation, Intelligence, Scoring, Accuracy, Error analysis, Daily occurrence, Statistical data

Subject Categories : Government and Political Science
      Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE