Accession Number : ADA116874

Title :   Future Computing,

Corporate Author : RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA

Personal Author(s) : Leinweber,David

PDF Url : ADA116874

Report Date : Dec 1981

Pagination or Media Count : 49

Abstract : This article is typical of thousands that have appeared in the technical and popular press on the subject of computer technology in the last couple of years. It shows an almost exponential growth in the demand for computer programmers. Others like it cite statistics such as five computers per programmer within the next 10 years. This kind of figure is virtuallly meaningless. When microprocessors are being installed in small consumer-oriented systems like electric razors, stoves, and blenders, it doesn't make a lot of sense to talk about the number of programmers per computer. Such figures can be likened to the extrapolation of TV sales figures in the late 50s and 60s, which, if continued, would leave us up to our knees in television sets. The real question is seen in Slide 2. This is the central problem facing the computer industry today, and Moore had good reason to emphasize the point. In the intervening year or two, a number of developments have intervened that may have altered his perspective, but the magnitude of the adjustment that the computer industry must make, and the new economics introduced by VLSI, are still enormous. The entire cost structure underlying the use of computers is turning upside down, things have changed very fast. (Author)

Descriptors :   *Computer applications, *Microelectronics, *Technology forecasting, Growth(General), Programmers, Microcircuits, Computer programs, Multiprocessors, Electronic countermeasures, Demand(Economics)

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Computer Programming and Software
      Computer Hardware

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE