Accession Number : ADA117101

Title :   A Theoretical Study of the Propagation of a Mass Detonation.

Descriptive Note : Conference paper,


Personal Author(s) : Howe,Philip M ; Kiwan,Abdul R

PDF Url : ADA117101

Report Date : 18 Jun 1982

Pagination or Media Count : 15

Abstract : The mass detonation problem has been formulated as a dynamic probablistic process, equivalent to a specialized bond propagation problem in percolation theory. A Monte Carlo model was constructed, with the flexibility of treating both bond and site percolation problems, but subject to the constraint that no munition be allowed to detonate more than once. This constraint is equivalent to forbidding existence of closed loops in the cluster configurations, i.e., in graph theoretic terminology. Trees are the only permissible configurations. Calculations were made for two and three dimensional arrays. Results of three dimensional calculations were compared with Monte Carlo calculations for the general site and bond problems. The results of specialized bond problem calculations are essentially indistinguishable from those for the general bond problem, indicating that the restriction of permissible configurations to trees has little influence on the results. It was found from plots of mean explosion size versus interaction probability that, as long as the immediate neighborhood of the critical region is avioded, the probability of achieving a mass detonation remains small. Thus, the critical interaction probability can be used to make estimates of the required munitions sensitivity to prevent mass detonation. The synergistic effect associated with simultaneous detonation neighbor, was treated and found to have a noticeable, but not strong, effect on the mean explosion size and critical probability.

Descriptors :   *Sympathetic detonations, *Ordnance, Explosions, Propagation, Magazines(Ordnance), Pallets, Arrays, Three dimensional, Storage, Safety, Configurations, Monte Carlo method, Probability

Subject Categories : Statistics and Probability
      Ammunition and Explosives

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE