Accession Number : ADA118735

Title :   The B-G System of Evaluating Forecasts.

Descriptive Note : Environmental research papers,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE GEOPHYSICS LAB HANSCOM AFB MA

Personal Author(s) : Gringorten,Irving I ; Boehm,Albert R

PDF Url : ADA118735

Report Date : 04 Jan 1982

Pagination or Media Count : 33

Abstract : To score a forecast of an event, like the noontime temperature at a city airport, a system has been proposed that would measure the improvement of the forecast over simple climatic information. If the climatic probability of the forecast (F) is PF, and that of the observed event (V) is PV, then the assigned score (sFV) becomes sFV = -ln(1 - P1)P2 - 1, where P1 = min(PF, PV) and P2 = max(PF, PV). A test of the forecaster's skill, however, requires a large set of forecasts and corresponding verifications.

Descriptors :   *WEATHER FORECASTING, LONG RANGE(TIME), VALIDATION, SCORING, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, PROBABILITY, CHI SQUARE TEST

Subject Categories : Meteorology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE