Accession Number : ADA119370

Title :   On the Asymptotic Distribution of the Size of a Stochastic Epidemic.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : STANFORD UNIV CA DEPT OF STATISTICS

Personal Author(s) : Sellke,Thomas

PDF Url : ADA119370

Report Date : May 1982

Pagination or Media Count : 13

Abstract : For a stochastic epidemic of the type considered by Bailey (1) and Kendall (3), Daniels (2) showed that 'when the threshold is large but the population size is much larger, the distribution of the number remaining uninfected in a large epidemic has approximately the Poisson form.' A simple, intuitive proof is given for this result without use of Daniels' assumption that the original number of infectives is 'small'. The proof is based on a construction of the epidemic process which is more explicit than the usual description. (Author)

Descriptors :   *Stochastic processes, *Statistical distributions, *Infectious disease transmission, Population, Markov processes, Poisson density functions, Sizes(Dimensions), Asymptotic series, Epidemiology

Subject Categories : Medicine and Medical Research
      Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE