
Accession Number : ADA119370
Title : On the Asymptotic Distribution of the Size of a Stochastic Epidemic.
Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,
Corporate Author : STANFORD UNIV CA DEPT OF STATISTICS
Personal Author(s) : Sellke,Thomas
PDF Url : ADA119370
Report Date : May 1982
Pagination or Media Count : 13
Abstract : For a stochastic epidemic of the type considered by Bailey (1) and Kendall (3), Daniels (2) showed that 'when the threshold is large but the population size is much larger, the distribution of the number remaining uninfected in a large epidemic has approximately the Poisson form.' A simple, intuitive proof is given for this result without use of Daniels' assumption that the original number of infectives is 'small'. The proof is based on a construction of the epidemic process which is more explicit than the usual description. (Author)
Descriptors : *Stochastic processes, *Statistical distributions, *Infectious disease transmission, Population, Markov processes, Poisson density functions, Sizes(Dimensions), Asymptotic series, Epidemiology
Subject Categories : Medicine and Medical Research
Statistics and Probability
Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE