Accession Number : ADA119860
Title : The Keilson-Ross Procedure for Estimating Climatic Probabilities of Duration of Weather Conditions.
Descriptive Note : Environmental research papers,
Corporate Author : AIR FORCE GEOPHYSICS LAB HANSCOM AFB MA
Personal Author(s) : Gringorten,Irving I.
Report Date : 01 APR 1982
Pagination or Media Count : 28
Abstract : In a recent mathematical development the probability of the maximum of a continuous weather element, over a specified time interval, was computed analytically. As long as the weather condition is describable by a Markov (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck) process, the time interval could be a duration of a few seconds to a few weeks. The analytical solutions provide corrections to previous probability estimates that had been made by Monte Carlo simulation. There still remains, however, the requirement for rapid solutions. The adaptation of this problem to modern computers makes use of cubic B-splines, and provides answers with a high degree of accuracy. (Author)
Descriptors : *WEATHER, *PROBABILITY, CLIMATE, TIME, METEOROLOGICAL DATA, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, MARKOV PROCESSES, SPLINES(GEOMETRY), COMPUTER PROGRAMS
Subject Categories : Meteorology
Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE