Accession Number : ADA130684

Title :   Army Prisoner Population Prediction Study (AP3).

Descriptive Note : Final study rept.,

Corporate Author : ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY BETHESDA MD

Personal Author(s) : Miller,Robert M ; Miller,Stanley H

PDF Url : ADA130684

Report Date : Jun 1983

Pagination or Media Count : 120

Abstract : The Army Prisoner Prediction Study (AP3) consists of the development of a methodology and associated model to provide the Army Correctional System proponent with an analytic managerial tool to assist in the management of the correctional system. The model assesses the impact of various changes in confinement policy decisions and environmental conditions in the criminal justice system on the prison populations. The Army Prisoner Management Model (PRISM) is a network simulation model constructed within the context of Q-GERT. PRISM simulates the flow of prisoners from the general Army population through the legal court system into correctional/confinement facilities. Various decisions are calculated stochastically to route the prisoners through the network and statistical analyses are performed within the model to report average daily prisoner populations and average confinement times. Military Police crime data and reports, court-martial data, and historical prison data were examined to calculate the rates and probability distributions upon which the model operates. The model was tested and validated by calculation on inputs from historical data and comparing the resulting populations against historical populations. (Author)

Descriptors :   *PRISONERS, *ARMY PERSONNEL, *CORRECTIONS, *PREDICTIONS, MODELS, ENLISTED PERSONNEL, MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, ARMY PLANNING, CONFINED ENVIRONMENTS, SYSTEMS ANALYSIS, MODEL THEORY, CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM, NETWORK ANALYSIS(MANAGEMENT), PRISONS, SIMULATION

Subject Categories : Sociology and Law
      Personnel Management and Labor Relations

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE