Accession Number : ADA133476

Title :   Decisionmaking for Antisubmarine Warfare Commanders.

Descriptive Note : Project status rept.


PDF Url : ADA133476

Report Date : 16 Feb 1983

Pagination or Media Count : 6

Abstract : The primary goal of last year's effort was to model high-level decision-making for antisubmarine warfare commanders. To abet this modeling effort, the SHOR paradigm was presented as a structure for analyzing human cognitive decisionmaking. The commander's decisionmaking process was cast in the SHOR framework. A Bayesian mathematical model of the decisionmaker's hypothesis evaluation procedure was developed. The inputs to the model were the hypotheses and sensor data, and its outputs were the posterior probabilities of the hypotheses' being true and their respective states of nature. It was thought that these outputs would be sufficient for the commander to perform the option generation and evaluation activities. A further delineation of the decisionmaking process of the antisubmarine warfare commander and subsequent model is underway. The modeling effort is partitioned into three major modules: environmental driver, situation assessment, and resource management. Work on the environmental driver is almost complete. Descriptions of the latter two modules represent details of intended development.

Descriptors :   *Antisubmarine warfare, *Decision making, *Mathematical models, *Military commanders, Cognition, Problem solving, Model theory, Resource management, Scenarios, Data acquisition, Clustering, Estimates, Predictions, Hypotheses, Probability, Bayes theorem

Subject Categories : Administration and Management
      Statistics and Probability
      Undersea and Antisubmarine Warfare

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE