Accession Number : ADA135531

Title :   The Use of Time Series Analysis to Develop Spares Requirements Forecasts.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS

Personal Author(s) : Taylor,L D

PDF Url : ADA135531

Report Date : Sep 1983

Pagination or Media Count : 123

Abstract : There is a growing suspicion that a linear relationship for demands per flying hour, as currently used, is not an accurate assumption. The spare parts data used for stock level maintenance may not, necessarily, conform to the general assumption of a linear relationship for demands on those parts per flying hour. There is a concern that support based on this peacetime assumption may fall short in a wartime situation. Demands per flying hours are inherently a factor of time, but this factor is not presently considered in computing forecasts. Time series methods are compared to a model of the same data, produced without the benefit of time series methods, to demonstrate that using the linearity assumption in forecasting can lead to errors. (Author)

Descriptors :   *Time series analysis, *Forecasting, *Mathematical prediction, *Spare parts, Military requirements, Weapon systems, Aircraft maintenance, Literature surveys, Fighter aircraft, Air Force planning, Inventory control, Theses

Subject Categories : Numerical Mathematics
      Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE