Accession Number : ADA137291

Title :   Forecasting U.S. Army Major Command Readiness Based on Enlisted Personnel Strength.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,


Personal Author(s) : Thomas,C S

PDF Url : ADA137291

Report Date : Dec 1983

Pagination or Media Count : 98

Abstract : A model using linear programming optimization and Markov Chain forecasting techniques is presented to forecast future Major Command (MACOM) readiness based on the personnel criteria of Army Regulation (AR) 220-1. The model is composed of four modules. First, the Recruitment Module forecasts accessions based on total numbers recruited and historical attrition rates. Second, the Distribution Module optimally assigns all new accessions and permanent change of station moves to the MACOM's. Next, the Forecasting Module ages the MACOM's using the theory of Markov Chains. Finally, the Readiness Indicator Module computes and assigns a readiness rating to the MACOM's based on the personnel criteria specified in AR 220-1. The results obtained from this methodology can aid DCSPERS, MILPERCEN, and other decision makers in the formulation of future manpower policies concerning recruitment, promotion, expiration term of service (ETS) and permanent change of station (PCS).

Descriptors :   *Army planning, *Manpower, *Enlisted personnel, *Operational readiness, *Forecasting, Army personnel, Military force levels, Regulations, Combat readiness, Mathematical models, Linear programming, Optimization, Markov processes, Ratings, Manpower utilization, Skills, Specialists, Jobs, Recruiting, Modular construction, Attrition, Distribution, Naval research, Theses

Subject Categories : Administration and Management
      Personnel Management and Labor Relations
      Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE