Accession Number : ADA137943

Title :   Decision Theory: Individual Biases and Their Effect on Forecasting in an Organization.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : Shannon,J T ; Schwiering,D A

PDF Url : ADA137943

Report Date : Dec 1983

Pagination or Media Count : 67

Abstract : There has been a great deal written about how individual cognitive biases effect decision making. However, there is little empirical evidence to show how such heuristic patterns affect decision making within organizations. This thesis reviews the literature concerning heuristics and behavioral decision theory and then examines budgetary forecasting decisions within two large organizations to see if these biases can be observed in forecasts produced within organizations. (Author)

Descriptors :   *Decision theory, *Decision making, *Bias, Organizations, Forecasting, Budgets, Heuristic methods, Judgement(Psychology), Availability, Cognition, Behavior, Performance(Human), Profits, Corporations, Military organizations, Theses

Subject Categories : Administration and Management
      Psychology
      Numerical Mathematics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE