Accession Number : ADA140758
Title : Interactive Risk Analysis and Development of Standardized Factors.
Descriptive Note : Final rept. 1 Aug 83-31 Jan 84,
Corporate Author : PEL INC BATON ROUGE LA
Personal Author(s) : Worm,G H
PDF Url : ADA140758
Report Date : Jan 1984
Pagination or Media Count : 34
Abstract : Part I presents a brief description of a computer program which is available to perform calculations needed in a risk analysis. The program allows a user to estimate the risk associated with any number of variables and to display the distribution of any arithmetic (+, -, and/or *) combination of the variables. The mode of operation is designed to be similar to a calculator. Rather than entering in a single number, the user must supply a low, most likely, and high for each variable. Variables can be added, subtracted, or multiplied; intermediate calculations can be stored; and the distribution of the total can be displayed at any time. b. Part II discussed the development of a microcomputerized statistical price risk analysis model which allows a user to estimate a distribution of total cost using complete 14 objective input. The objective characteristics of a contract which introduce cost risk are identified, and the standardized factors associated with these characteristics are defined and applied to a cost breakdown. The use of standardized factors has several advantages over subjective estimates of risk: the cost risk analysis is objective rather than subjective; estimates of risk are independent of biases and experience; risk anlaysis results are comparable between contracts; standardized factors provide documentation for the cost risk analysis; oversights are eliminated; and standardized factors allow for the incorporation of many different points of view.
Descriptors : *Computer programs, *Computations, *Risk, Cost estimates, Weapon systems, Factor analysis, Standards, Interactions, Man computer interface, Variables, Statistical analysis, Calculators, Microcomputers, Contract administration
Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
Computer Programming and Software
Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE