Accession Number : ADA140799

Title :   Renormalization of Seasonals in the Additive Seasonal Model: Is it Necessary?

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : McKenzie,E

PDF Url : ADA140799

Report Date : Feb 1984

Pagination or Media Count : 14

Abstract : It is always recommended that the initial estimates of the seasonal factors of the additive seasonal model sum to zero, i.e. are normalized. Once forecasting begins, however, the seasonal factors lose this property. It is often recommended that the factors are renormalized either seasonally or continuously, i.e. with every observation. This document shows that this latter procedure is never necessary since a simple change in the smoothing constants can achieve the same ends. A simpler and more efficient method of obtaining seasonally renormalized forecasts is also given. (Author)

Descriptors :   *Mathematical models, Forecasting, Seasonal variations, Equations

Subject Categories : Numerical Mathematics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE