Accession Number : ADA140864

Title :   The Introduction of Uncertainty Techniques to the Productivity Investment Fund.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : Lenio,E A

PDF Url : ADA140864

Report Date : Mar 1984

Pagination or Media Count : 130

Abstract : Each year the Defense Productivity Program Office (DPPO) disburses funds for Productivity Investment Projects (PIFs). The purpose of these projects is to increase productivity within the Department of Defense (DOD). To enhance these efforts, DPPO requested a study to be conducted to determine if methods of risk or uncertainty will affect the results obtained by the current procedure. This study applies various principles of uncertainty to this procedure and examines their impact on the project rankings. A background of DPPO and PIFs is presented together with discussion of risk and uncertainty techniques, as well as the economic indicators used in ranking projects. A model is then explained which will introduce uncertainty into the present procedure. Results of the initial comparison and sensitivity analysis is revealed. Conclusions are drawn based on these results and recommendations concerning alternate procedures and possible further research are presented. (Author)

Descriptors :   *Risk, *Department of Defense, *Investments, *Productivity, Management planning and control, Planning programming budgeting, Allocations, Decision making, Economics, Indicators, Predictions, Models, Operations research, Theses

Subject Categories : Administration and Management

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE