Accession Number : ADA141355

Title :   Error Analysis for Winters' Additive Seasonal Forecasting System.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : McKenzie,E

PDF Url : ADA141355

Report Date : Feb 1984

Pagination or Media Count : 23

Abstract : A procedure for deriving the variance of the forecast error for Winters' Additive Seasonal Forecasting system is given. Both point and cumulative T-step ahead forecasts are dealt with. Closed form expressions are given in the cases when the model is (i) trend-free and (ii) non-seasonal. The effects of renormalization of the seasonal factors is also discussed. The fact that the error variance for this system can be infinite is discussed and the relationship of this property withe stability of the system indicated. Some recommendations are given about what to do in these circumstances. (Author)

Descriptors :   *Error analysis, *Forecasting, *Mathematical models, Variations, Confidence limits, Equations, Seasonal variations, Errors, Stability, Estimates, Nonlinear systems, Covariance

Subject Categories : Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE