Accession Number : ADA182906

Title :   Validation, Error, and Simplification of Decision Technology.

Descriptive Note : Final rept. 15 Dec 78-30 Jun 80,

Corporate Author : UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH INST

Personal Author(s) : Stillwell,William G ; Edwards,Ward

PDF Url : ADA182906

Report Date : Jun 1980

Pagination or Media Count : 30

Abstract : This report summarizes the research conducted under ARPA Contract No. N00014-79-C-0038. We examined the general topics of validation of multiattribute utility elicitation techniques, error in human preference judgment and simplification of assessment. Both theoretical and empirical work is discussed. Experimental work showed that existing methods of elicitation of multiattribute utility weight judgments are valid in that they compare favorably with an external criterion. This was found to be true with both student subjects in a contrived laboratory setting and with expert subjects working in the area of their expertise. Theoretical work showed several paths to simplification of elicitation. Using the functional relationships between risky and riskless utility elicitation procedures, one study showed that with a few simple assumptions holding, the much simpler riskless assessment techniques must maintain the preference ordering implied by the more complex procedures. A second theoretical study defined conditions under which various simplifying weighting strategies can be expected to do well in terms of replicating the preferences indicated by more complex elicitations.

Descriptors :   *Decision theory, *Validation, *Simplification

Subject Categories : Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE