Accession Number : ADA183891

Title :   The Effects of Cognitive Style and Prior Information on Multi-Stage Decisionmaking.

Descriptive Note : Final rept. Aug 82-Dec 85,

Corporate Author : ALPHATECH INC BURLINGTON MA

Personal Author(s) : Entin,Elliot E ; James,Ronald M ; Serfaty,Daniel ; Forester,John A

PDF Url : ADA183891

Report Date : May 1987

Pagination or Media Count : 70

Abstract : Drawing on the decisionmaking literature and on an initial ROC experiment a research design was formulated to investigate multi-stage decisionmaking and cognitive style in conditions of uncertainty. Subjects participating in the simulation experiment were required to discriminate between missile attack or a missile test condition based on probabilistic imperfect information. Results from the signal detection analyses replicated the earlier effects: subjects possessing an analytic style made significantly better discriminations than subjects exhibiting a global style. ANOVA results showed that subjects held higher attack probabilities: (1) in attack conditions, (2) when missile site attack probability was high, (3) as the heat sensor range moved closer to in-missile range, and (4) with each succeeding report. All the two-way interactions proved significant as were two of the three-ways. Overall, subjects demonstrated a strong bias in favor of prior information to gauge attack probability and when that source was weak attempted to use the heat signature information. It was also possible to devise a normative-descriptive model of the subject's multistage decisionmaking that fit the data quite well.

Descriptors :   *COGNITION, *DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION PROCESSING, ANTISUBMARINE WARFARE, ATTACK, DETECTION, DETECTORS, GAGES, GUIDED MISSILES, HEAT, PROBABILITY, SIGNALS, SIGNATURES, SIMULATION, SITES

Subject Categories : Psychology
      Command, Control and Communications Systems
      Undersea and Antisubmarine Warfare

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE