Accession Number : ADA185249

Title :   A Methodology for Determining the Intent of a Limited Nuclear Attack.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

Personal Author(s) : Bivins, Robert L

PDF Url : ADA185249

Report Date : May 1987

Pagination or Media Count : 203

Abstract : The purpose of this study was to develop a methodology for determining the intent of a limited nuclear attack. An investigation of possible methodologies for determining intent lead to research in Bayesian analysis. It was thought that the answer to intent could be found by taking prior beliefs of the decision maker and then using Bayes Theorem to update those beliefs with ground-bases radar information obtained over time. Unfortunately the use of Bayesian analysis as proposed here in this research did not prove to be robust when the radar information is inaccurate. The reason for the inability of the proposed methodology to perform under the inaccurate radar parameters is that ignores too many of the complicating issues in determining intent.

Descriptors :   *NUCLEAR WARFARE, *STRATEGIC ANALYSIS, FORECASTING, BAYES THEOREM, RISK, DECISION MAKING, DATA REDUCTION, RADAR TARGETS, IMPACT PREDICTION, WEIGHTING FUNCTIONS, ERROR ANALYSIS, THESES

Subject Categories : Nuclear Warfare

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE