Accession Number : ADA186264

Title :   How Errors in Component Reliability Affect System Reliability.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : NORTH CAROLINA UNIV AT CHAPEL HILL CURRICULUM IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND SYSTE MS ANALYSIS

Personal Author(s) : Fishman, George S

PDF Url : ADA186264

Report Date : Jul 1987

Pagination or Media Count : 31

Abstract : This paper studies how sampling variation in component reliability estimates affects the computation of system reliability that uses these estimates as input. Results show that relative bias in system reliability grows quadratically with the number of components for which each component reliability estimate is used whereas the corresponding coefficient of variation grows linearly with this number of components. If these components are in parallel they lead to an understatement of system reliability. In series, they lead to an overstatement. The paper describes resampling schemes that eliminate bias without increasing the dominant variance term. (Keywords: operations research; systems analysis; statistical accuracy).

Descriptors :   *VARIATIONS, *STATISTICAL SAMPLES, *ERROR ANALYSIS, ACCURACY, BIAS, COEFFICIENTS, COMPUTATIONS, ESTIMATES, OPERATIONS RESEARCH, RELIABILITY, SAMPLING, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

Subject Categories : Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE