Accession Number : ADA186380

Title :   Discrete Reliability Growth Models Using Failure Discounting.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : Drake, James E

PDF Url : ADA186380

Report Date : Sep 1987

Pagination or Media Count : 128

Abstract : Three discrete reliability growth models using fractional failure reduction, referred to as failure discounting, were developed to estimate changing system reliability. Each of the models is designed for use when testing is performed until a fixed number of failures have been observed and attribute data, success or failure, is available for each trial. The first reliability growth model applies failure discounting to the maximum likelihood estimate for a proportion. The second and third models use a modification of an exponential reliability estimate employing linear regression and a weighted average technique respectively along with failure discounting to track changing reliability. Two failure discounting methods were used with each reliability growth model. The first method reduces past failures by a fixed fraction at a fixed interval. The second method uses the upper confidence bound for the reoccurrence of each failure cause as the discounted failure value. The performance of the reliability growth models with varying reliability growth patterns was evaluated with a Monte-Carlo computerized simulation. (Theses)

Descriptors :   *GROWTH(GENERAL), *RELIABILITY, *MATHEMATICAL MODELS, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, CONFIDENCE LEVEL, FAILURE, INTERVALS, LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS, MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION, MONTE CARLO METHOD, PATTERNS, THESES

Subject Categories : Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE