Accession Number : ADA186547

Title :   Estimation of Expected Casualties Using Aliveness Adjustments.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : Barr, Donald R

PDF Url : ADA186547

Report Date : Aug 1987

Pagination or Media Count : 45

Abstract : In military operations research, it is often desired to estimate the expected casualties that would accrue to each side in a battle between opposing forces. One way to obtain credible estimates is to use field tests in which battles with engagements between battle units (such as tanks, armored personnel carriers and ground-to-ground missile systems) are simulated. One common feature of such simulated battles is the use of real time casualty assessment to determine the outcome of each engagement. Real time casualty assessment uses pre-set probabilities of kill, or Pk values; a Bernoulli trial with a Pk appropriate for the conditions of the engagement determines whether the battle unit fired upon is killed and thus removed from further play in the battle. For various reasons, it may be desired to estimate the expected numbers of battle units of given types that would be killed for Pk values different from those used in the experiment. This can be accomplished, using adjustments to the estimates obtained for the original experiment. Such estimators can be based on the computed aliveness of surviving battle units. We discuss two formulations of the aliveness concept, and compare the resulting estimators.

Descriptors :   *CASUALTIES, *ESTIMATES, *MATHEMATICAL MODELS, ARMORED PERSONNEL CARRIERS, BATTLES, BERNOULLI DISTRIBUTION, FIELD TESTS, FORMULATIONS, KILL PROBABILITIES, MILITARY OPERATIONS, OPERATIONS RESEARCH, REAL TIME, SIMULATION, SURFACE TO SURFACE MISSILES

Subject Categories : Operations Research
      Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE