Accession Number : ADA186673

Title :   A Personnel Flow Model for Predicting the Coast Guard Enlisted Force Structure.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : Bardo, Lance L

PDF Url : ADA186673

Report Date : Sep 1987

Pagination or Media Count : 174

Abstract : The U.S. Coast Guard is a military service with a hierarchical organization. CG manpower planning requires a forecast of the number of accessions needed as well as the resulting force structure for each month of the upcoming year. This thesis, presents a modified Markov transition model that integrates the pertinent personnel flows to forecast the monthly accessions and force structure for the enlisted CG. Personnel flows are estimated using standard statistical techniques such a linear regression analysis and point estimation. An algorithm is presented to solve for end of the month stocks while meeting a man year consumption constraint Full Time Equivalent (FTE) when attrition rates and the beginning and end of year stocks are given. Finally, the pertinent personnel flow estimates, the FTE algorithm ad the modified Markov model are integrated into a comprehensive Military Employment Capability Plan which is programmed on a micro-computer spreadsheet. Keyword: Attrition rates; Algorithm.

Descriptors :   *COAST GUARD, *MANPOWER, *ENLISTED PERSONNEL, ALGORITHMS, ATTRITION, ESTIMATES, FLOW, FORECASTING, LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS, MARKOV PROCESSES, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, MILITARY FORCES(UNITED STATES), MODELS, ORGANIZATIONS, PERSONNEL, PLANNING, RATES, STATISTICAL PROCESSES, TRANSITIONS, PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, THESES

Subject Categories : Personnel Management and Labor Relations

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE