Accession Number : ADA187039

Title :   Peacekeeper Test Strategy: A Pilot Decision Analysis.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS

Personal Author(s) : Darnall, Walter W , Jr

PDF Url : ADA187039

Report Date : Sep 1987

Pagination or Media Count : 67

Abstract : A pilot decision analysis was conducted to determine an optimal test strategy for the PEACEKEEPER intercontinental ballistic missile weapon system. Air Force officers experienced with PEACEKEEPER were consulted and their inputs combined into an influence diagram. The resulting model was solved using the Performa software program and showed that, while launching six missiles per year gives the largest expected value, little additional information is gained after the third launch. This simple model indicates that a new, more comprehensive decision-making process is possible. The model is flexible and can easily be expanded to incorporate any factors that a decision maker might want to consider before expending his scarce resources. It allows relationships between variables to be readily shown and more fully understood. This pilot model is a starting point from which new insights may be developed through the integrated use of currently available weapon system data. Keywords: Test and evaluation; Decision theory; Decision making; Surface to surface missiles. (Thesis)

Descriptors :   *DECISION THEORY, *SURFACE TO SURFACE MISSILES, *TEST AND EVALUATION, AIR FORCE PERSONNEL, COMPUTER PROGRAMS, DECISION MAKING, DIAGRAMS, INTEGRATED SYSTEMS, LAUNCHING, MODELS, OFFICER PERSONNEL, OPTIMIZATION, PILOT STUDIES, STRATEGY, WEAPON SYSTEMS, RELIABILITY, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, MICROCOMPUTERS, LONG RANGE(DISTANCE), THESES

Subject Categories : Surface-launched Guided Missiles
      Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE