Accession Number : ADA187183

Title :   Robustness in Cost Performance Models.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS

Personal Author(s) : Morgan, Darren E

PDF Url : ADA187183

Report Date : Sep 1987

Pagination or Media Count : 85

Abstract : This thesis examined the robustness of methods used to compute estimates at completion of contract costs. The four techniques examined were a subset of those used by the Cost Performance Report Analysis computer program to derive estimates at completion. Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to generate the required data values for 18 simulated populations representing a variety of possible cost and schedule overrun scenarios. A statistical evaluation of the robustness of the four estimate at completion techniques was performed using samples from each of the 18 simulated populations. The results of this analysis indicate that, for practical purposes, none of the selected estimate at completion techniques are robust for the cost and schedule overrun scenarios that were investigated. The tendency of each of the estimate at completion models was to underestimate the final contract cost. The estimate at completion models incorporating mathematical smoothing techniques (i.e., weightings or moving averages) provided relatively stable results across all of the populations; however, they were unable to consistently predict a contract's completion cost within 30 percent of the actual value.

Descriptors :   *COST MODELS, *COST ESTIMATES, *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, CONTRACTS, COSTS, MEAN, MONTE CARLO METHOD, POPULATION, SIMULATION, STABILITY, TEST AND EVALUATION, THESES, COMPUTATIONS

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE