Accession Number : ADA187572

Title :   A Comparison of Projection Methods in the Forecasting of Overhead Costs for Seven Government Aerospace Contractors.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : Schnedar, Christopher P

PDF Url : ADA187572

Report Date : Sep 1987

Pagination or Media Count : 69

Abstract : This thesis compares three types of forecasting models developed to predict overhead costs for seven government aerospace contractors. The methodologies utilized to develop the models include generalized least squares, univariate Box-Jenkins, and multivariate Box-Jenkins procedures. The results of those models are compared using three measures of effectiveness: correlation coefficient between actual and predicted values, root mean squared error divided by the mean of the actuals, and mean absolute percentage error (in percent). As was expected, the univariate Box-Jenkins method produced short term forecasts which were superior to those of the least squares regression models. However, the regression forecasts were highly accurate and were considerably less expensive to obtain. Only one multivariate Box-Jenkins model could be developed . The results of this model were marginally superior to the related regression model and significantly inferior to the univariate Box-Jenkins model for the same contractor. Keywords: Thesis; Autocorrelation; Transfer functions; Charts.

Descriptors :   *MATHEMATICAL MODELS, *COST ESTIMATES, *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, AEROSPACE SYSTEMS, AUTOCORRELATION, COEFFICIENTS, COMPARISON, CONTRACTORS, CORRELATION, FORECASTING, LEAST SQUARES METHOD, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, TRANSFER FUNCTIONS, THESES, OPERATIONS RESEARCH, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE