Accession Number : ADA190656

Title :   Petroleum Prices: Past, Present, and Prospective,

Corporate Author : HUDSON INST INDIANAPOLIS IN

Personal Author(s) : Brown, William M

PDF Url : ADA190656

Report Date : Jan 1987

Pagination or Media Count : 162

Abstract : The widespread need for a realistic perspective on the likely trends in future petroleum prices first became obvious during the 1970s, and again in the mid-1980s. Businessmen associated with the petroleum trade need a rational outlook on prices; judging from past experience, however, they seem ready to adopt whatever conventional wisdom emerges about likely future trends. One of the purposes of this analysis is to determine what led earlier forecasts so far astray, and to set forth some important lessons that could lead to an improved forecasting methodology. A second purpose is to provide an analysis of the current situation in the international oil market and its implications for future petroleum prices over the near-term, mid-term, and long-term. By applying some realistic judgments about the inherent uncertainties in the principal factors likely to affect those prices, a perspective is developed that is intended to be helpful to buyers, sellers, and governments around the world, even though it does not rest upon a single trajectory of likely future petroleum prices. Keywords: Economic analysis; Forecasting; Natural gas; Crude oil.

Descriptors :   *ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, *FORECASTING, *PETROLEUM PRODUCTS, COMMERCE, COSTS, INTERNATIONAL, MARKETING, METHODOLOGY, OILS, NATURAL GAS, CRUDE OIL, COST ANALYSIS, PRODUCTION, COST EFFECTIVENESS

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE