Accession Number : ADA191344

Title :   Space-Time Modelling with Long-Memory Dependence: Assessing Ireland's Wind Power Resource.

Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,

Corporate Author : WASHINGTON UNIV SEATTLE DEPT OF STATISTICS

Personal Author(s) : Haslett, John ; Raftery, Adrian E

PDF Url : ADA191344

Report Date : Oct 1987

Pagination or Media Count : 30

Abstract : The Irish government has, in recent years, been considering the possibility of using wind energy to meet a significant portion of Ireland's energy needs. This paper describes a project aimed at developing methods for the evaluation of Ireland's wind power resource. The authors consider estimation of the long-term average power output from a wind turbine generator at a site for which little data on wind speeds is available. Long-term records of wind speeds at the twelve synoptic meteorological stations are also used. Inference is based on a simple and parsimonious approximating model which accounts for the main features of wind speeds in Ireland, namely seasonal effects, spatial correlation, short-memory temporal autocorrelation, and long-memory temporal dependence. It syntheses deseasonalisation, kriging, ARMA modelling, and fractional differencing in a natural way. A simple kriging estimator performs well as a point estimator, and good interval estimators result from the model. The resulting procedure is easy to apply in practice.

Descriptors :   *IRELAND, *WIND, *ENERGY MANAGEMENT, CORRELATION, ENERGY, ESTIMATES, GENERATORS, OUTPUT, POWER, RESOURCES, SEASONAL VARIATIONS, SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION, TURBINES, WIND VELOCITY

Subject Categories : Non-electrical Energy Conversion
      Meteorology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE