Accession Number : ADA191951

Title :   Modeling and Evaluation of Expert Systems in Decisionmaking Organizations.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH CAMBRIDGE LAB FOR INFORMATION AND DECISION SYSTEMS

Personal Author(s) : Perdu, Didier M

PDF Url : ADA191951

Report Date : Dec 1987

Pagination or Media Count : 99

Abstract : The introduction of expert systems as decision aids in decisionmaking organizations will modify their performance. First, a model of symbolic computation with fuzzy logic, using Predicate Transition Nets, is presented. The basic operators AND, OR, and NOT are then used to model the most common kind of expert systems: the consultant expert system in which production rules are used for knowledge representation. This model allows to simulate the dynamical behavior of the expert system in its search for a solution and to evaluate its response time for a given input. This response time depends on the number of rules scanned by the system and on the number of interactions with the user. An Air Defense Command and Control application, involving a hierarchical organization, where the expert system is used as an aid in the fusion of inconsistent information, is then developed. A strategy involving the use of the expert system is compared to two other strategies expected to be used by a decision making facing this problem. Measures of performance (workload, timeliness, and accuracy) are evaluated for each of these strategies. The results show that the use of the expert system improves significantly the accuracy of the organization, but requires more time and increases the workload of the decision making using it.

Descriptors :   *DECISION MAKING, *ORGANIZATIONS, *ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, ACCURACY, COMPUTATIONS, DYNAMICS, INTERACTIONS, LOGIC, MODELS, NETS, PRODUCTION, REACTION TIME, SYMBOLS, TRANSITIONS, WORKLOAD, INFORMATION THEORY, INFORMATION PROCESSING

Subject Categories : Administration and Management
      Cybernetics
      Human Factors Engineering & Man Machine System

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE