Accession Number : ADA255130

Title :   A Methodology for Assessing Acquisition Technical Risk.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : Harrison, William G., Jr

Report Date : JUN 1992

Pagination or Media Count : 152

Abstract : This thesis examines the problems affecting the quantitative assessment of technical risk in Department of Defense major weapon systems acquisition. A decision Theory approach is used. Commercial techniques and current DoD methods of technical risk assessment are investigated. TASCFORM TM technology values are used in a linear regression model to characterize the growth of technology over time. The model residuals provide a probability distribution for estimating the likelihood of achieving a specified level of technical performance. The benefit of a utility function describing technical risk perceptions is considered. The Expanded Pearson-Tukey method of describing risk is also investigated. Continued research into technology valuation techniques is recommended. A test case application of the Expanded Pearson-Tukey method is also recommended, to determine its ability to provide reliable and timely quantitative technical risk information. Weapon System Acquisition, Decision Theory, Risk Assessment, Technical Risk, Utility Theory.

Descriptors :   *ACQUISITION, *RISK, *WEAPON SYSTEMS, APPROACH, BENEFITS, DECISION THEORY, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, DISTRIBUTION, FUNCTIONS, GAME THEORY, MODELS, PERCEPTION, PROBABILITY, RESIDUALS, TEST AND EVALUATION, THEORY, THESES, TIME, VALUE, WEAPONS.

Subject Categories : Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE