Accession Number : ADA290019

Title :   A Modified Theory of Hegenmonic Stability.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH

Personal Author(s) : Conaway, Vernon W.

PDF Url : ADA290019

Report Date : DEC 1994

Pagination or Media Count : 192

Abstract : This thesis attempts to present a testable, parsimonious, economic and quantitative theory of hegemonic stability that is able to explain and predict the trade policies of each of the major actors in the international economic system from 1870 to 1986. To accomplish this goal, David Lake's version of hegemonic stability theory was modified by adding a security variable that took national security interests into account. Testing the theory required the historical examination of trade policies and national security interests of the major states in the international economic system. The results of the thesis indicate that national security interests are of vital importance in the formation of a state's foreign trade policy. The ultimate conclusion is that the modified version of hegemonic stability theory improves the predictability of trade policies from 71 percent to 97 percent, thereby validating the modification.

Descriptors :   *NATIONAL SECURITY, *COMMERCE, *INTERNATIONAL TRADE, STABILITY, UNITED STATES, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, POLICIES, POLITICAL SCIENCE, DECISION MAKING, INTERNATIONAL POLITICS, ECONOMICS, PREDICTIONS, THEORY, FORECASTING, THESES, DECISION THEORY, HISTORY, PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, GAME THEORY, GREAT BRITAIN, ECONOMIC MODELS, STATISTICAL DECISION THEORY.

Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Government and Political Science
      Defense Systems
      Administration and Management
      Humanities and History
      Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE