Accession Number : ADA290235

Title :   A Cost-Loss Ratio Model for Hurricane Sortie Decisions.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : Hatton, Mary T.

PDF Url : ADA290235

Report Date : SEP 1994

Pagination or Media Count : 135

Abstract : This thesis examines, using the framework of a cost-loss ratio, the dilemma of the Navy decision maker faced with the question of whether or not to sortie ocean-going ships from a port threatened by a hurricane. The long leadtime needed to execute a full sortie requires the decision maker to rely on hurricane forecasts that may contain large errors, despite improvements in forecasting over the past two decades. Furthermore, decision makers may have difficulty interpreting forecasts without the use of a decision aid. Analysis includes interviews with several tropical cyclone experts, a literature review of the economics of hurricanes, and a critique of a number of hurricane decision aids. Based upon this research, this thesis concludes that the CHARM model for setting hurricane readiness conditions is currently the best decision aid available for reducing the number of unnecessary sorties without putting the fleet at significantly increased risk.

Descriptors :   *ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, *DISPERSING, *RISK, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *FLEETS(SHIPS), *ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, *DECISION AIDS, *HURRICANES, DECISION MAKING, LITERATURE SURVEYS, OPERATIONAL READINESS, MISSIONS, ERRORS, NAVAL OPERATIONS, LEAD TIME.

Subject Categories : Meteorology
      Information Science
      Cybernetics
      Naval Surface Warfare

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE