Accession Number : ADA290235
Title : A Cost-Loss Ratio Model for Hurricane Sortie Decisions.
Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,
Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
Personal Author(s) : Hatton, Mary T.
PDF Url : ADA290235
Report Date : SEP 1994
Pagination or Media Count : 135
Abstract : This thesis examines, using the framework of a cost-loss ratio, the dilemma of the Navy decision maker faced with the question of whether or not to sortie ocean-going ships from a port threatened by a hurricane. The long leadtime needed to execute a full sortie requires the decision maker to rely on hurricane forecasts that may contain large errors, despite improvements in forecasting over the past two decades. Furthermore, decision makers may have difficulty interpreting forecasts without the use of a decision aid. Analysis includes interviews with several tropical cyclone experts, a literature review of the economics of hurricanes, and a critique of a number of hurricane decision aids. Based upon this research, this thesis concludes that the CHARM model for setting hurricane readiness conditions is currently the best decision aid available for reducing the number of unnecessary sorties without putting the fleet at significantly increased risk.
Descriptors : *ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, *DISPERSING, *RISK, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *FLEETS(SHIPS), *ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, *DECISION AIDS, *HURRICANES, DECISION MAKING, LITERATURE SURVEYS, OPERATIONAL READINESS, MISSIONS, ERRORS, NAVAL OPERATIONS, LEAD TIME.
Subject Categories : Meteorology
Naval Surface Warfare
Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE