Accession Number : ADA290588

Title :   A Regression Model for the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast.

Descriptive Note : Final rept.,

Corporate Author : NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s) : Chu, Jan-Hwa

PDF Url : ADA290588

Report Date : NOV 1994

Pagination or Media Count : 36

Abstract : Tropical cyclone forecasting is an important but difficult task. The term 'intensity' refers to the maximum surface or low-level wind speed associated with a tropical cyclone. A regression model for forecasting this wind intensity in the western North Pacific was derived by using the 19-year (1971-89) post-determined best-track data, which include the date, time and location of the tropical cyclone's circulation (cyclonic) center, and the estimated maximum sustained surface wind speed (one-minute average at 10-meter elevation). This model provides intensity forecasts out to 72 hours for 12-hour intervals, and is designed for the intensity of all classes of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. To establish characteristics of this regression model, intensity forecasts from the model are compared with official forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at Guam and with forecasts from a persistence method, for the year 1990, in terms of relative statistics.

Descriptors :   *MATHEMATICAL MODELS, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *WIND VELOCITY, *NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN, *TROPICAL CYCLONES, WIND, STATISTICS, INTENSITY, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, SURFACES, LOW LEVEL, CIRCULATION, GUAM.

Subject Categories : Meteorology
      Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE