Accession Number : ADA293064

Title :   Toward the Improvement of Aircraft-Icing Forecasts for the Continental United States.

Corporate Author : NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH BOULDER CO RESEARCH APPLICATIONS PRO GRAM

Personal Author(s) : Schultz, Paul ; Politovich, Marcia K.

Report Date : SEP 1992

Pagination or Media Count : 10

Abstract : An automated procedure is developed for detecting and forecasting atmospheric conditions conductive to aircraft icing over the continental United States. The procedure uses gridded output from the Nested-Grid Model, and is based on the manual techniques currently in use at the National Aviation Weather Advisory Unit in Kansas City, Missouri. Verification of the procedure suggests forecasting performance on par with the human forecasters. Unfortunately, efforts at more rigorous performance analysis are hindered by the inadequacies of the verification database, which consists of pilots' subjective reports of airframe ice buildup. In general, nice conditions are not reported. The physics of aircraft icing are reviewed, and the current manual techniques are discussed. The automated procedure provides an infrastructure for implementing incremental improvements in the algorithm as observations and numerical models improve. (AN)

Descriptors :   *WEATHER FORECASTING, *ICE FORECASTING, DATA BASES, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, ALGORITHMS, REPRINTS, AUTOMATION, VERIFICATION, PILOTS, GRIDS, ICE FORMATION, METEOROLOGICAL DATA, SEASONAL VARIATIONS, AIRFRAMES, COMPUTER GRAPHICS, MANUAL OPERATION, AVIATION SAFETY, CLOUD COVER, HUMIDITY.

Subject Categories : Meteorology
      Snow, Ice and Permafrost
      Commercial and General Aviation

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE