Accession Number : ADA293570

Title :   Reducing the Confirmation Bias in an Evolving Situation.

Descriptive Note : Interim rept. Sep 87-Aug 88,

Corporate Author : DECISION SCIENCE CONSORTIUM INC RESTON VA

Personal Author(s) : Tolcott, Martin A. ; Marvin, F. F.

PDF Url : ADA293570

Report Date : FEB 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 41

Abstract : This report presents the results of Phase 2 research on decision making in an evolving situation. As in Phase 1, the problem context was situation assessment by trained Army intelligence analysts working in pairs. Participants were given an initial battlefield scenario and asked to determine the enemy's most likely avenue of approach and to give their level of confidence; subsequently they were asked to reconsider their decisions after receiving each of three updated intelligence reports that contained some items that confirmed and some that did not confirm their early hypothesis. Finally, the participants were asked to rate each information item in terms of the degree to which it supported or contradicted their hypotheses. (AN)

Descriptors :   *DECISION MAKING, *JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY), SCENARIOS, SKILLS, ARMY PERSONNEL, BATTLEFIELDS, TEAMS(PERSONNEL), PROBLEM SOLVING, BEHAVIOR, HYPOTHESES, BIAS, CONFIDENCE LEVEL, CHI SQUARE TEST, MILITARY PSYCHOLOGY, ARMY INTELLIGENCE, ANALYSTS.

Subject Categories : Psychology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE