Accession Number : ADA293822

Title :   An Analytical Framework for Assessing Future Force Structure Requirements Under Uncertainty.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

Personal Author(s) : Fredley, Michael L.

PDF Url : ADA293822

Report Date : MAR 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 151

Abstract : The objective of this research was to develop an analytical framework to assess future force structure requirements under the major uncertainties inherent in the post-Cold War era. Among the uncertainties are the frequency and nature of future threats to U.S. interests and the cost of maintaining, building, and demobilizing forces. The centerpiece of the methodology is a computer model which simulates the development of threats to U.S. interests and the actions the U.S. takes to protect those interests. From this simulation, the costs and risks associated with different policy alternatives can be estimated. The simulation is set within a broader decision-analysis framework which provides the philosophy for determining the inputs to the simulation and for analyzing the output from the simulation. The research included an analysis of 24 policy alternatives involving the size of the Base Force, the safety margin maintained between the force size and the force requirement, the rate of force buildup, and the rate of force demobilization. The results suggest that the buildup rate is a key factor in lowering the costs of the U.S. military while controlling the risk of being unable to protect U. S. interests. (AN)

Descriptors :   *COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, *MILITARY FORCES(UNITED STATES), *DEFENSE PLANNING, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, MILITARY REQUIREMENTS, THEATER LEVEL OPERATIONS, OPTIMIZATION, POLICIES, NATIONAL SECURITY, RISK, DECISION MAKING, STRATEGIC ANALYSIS, COST ANALYSIS, PARAMETERS, THESES, INPUT OUTPUT PROCESSING, PROBLEM SOLVING, THREAT EVALUATION, JOINT MILITARY ACTIVITIES, COMPUTER FILES, MILITARY PLANNING, MARGIN OF SAFETY.

Subject Categories : Military Forces and Organizations
      Operations Research
      Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE