Accession Number : ADA297298

Title :   Final-Cost Estimates for Research and Development Programs Conditioned on Realized Costs.

Descriptive Note : Final rept.,

Corporate Author : OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WASHINGTON DC DIRECTOR PROGRAM ANALYSIS AN D EVALUATION

Personal Author(s) : Gallagher, Mark ; Lee, David A.

PDF Url : ADA297298

Report Date : 06 JUN 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 33

Abstract : We apply multiple model adaptive estimation (MMAE), a proven method of system identification widely used in engineering applications, to the problem of determining Bayesian probability distributions of the final cost and completion time of on-going research and development (R&D) programs, conditioned on actual cost of w9rk performed (ACWP) data. Modeling cumulative expenditures with Rayleigh distributions, we produce graphs of the results that give useful assessments of cost and schedule risks. The procedure is implemented in a convenient computer program. We give three examples of its application to actual data, and results of a Monte Carlo analysis verify the method. (KAR) P. 1

Descriptors :   *COMPUTER PROGRAMS, *COST ESTIMATES, *RESEARCH MANAGEMENT, TEST AND EVALUATION, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS, GRAPHS, MONTE CARLO METHOD, TIME, COSTS, IDENTIFICATION, ENGINEERING, RAYLEIGH SCATTERING, BAYES THEOREM.

Subject Categories : Administration and Management
      Economics and Cost Analysis
      Computer Programming and Software

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE