Accession Number : ADA298123

Title :   Systematic Humidity Errors in Numerical Weather Prediction Models.

Descriptive Note : Final rept.,

Corporate Author : PHILLIPS LAB HANSCOM AFB MA

Personal Author(s) : Norquist, Donald C.

PDF Url : ADA298123

Report Date : 13 FEB 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 40

Abstract : In this study, we have examined the systematic humidity errors of both global meteorological analyses and a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model (in various versions) initialized from them. Upon determining a definition for systematic error, we obtained the individual forecast bias and the ensemble bias over a sequence of forecast runs for each of several versions of the model. We found that model formulations designed to reduce systematic humidity forecast error with respect to one set of initial conditions did not produce the corresponding error reductions when initialized from a different set of meteorological analyses. Thus, both model formulation and initial conditions affect systematic humidity forecast error. Statistics gathered from several operational mesoscale NWP models suggest that each model has its own unique error characteristics. (AN)

Descriptors :   *WEATHER FORECASTING, *HUMIDITY, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, GLOBAL, PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS, STATISTICAL DATA, METEOROLOGICAL DATA, MOISTURE CONTENT, SEASONAL VARIATIONS, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, ERROR ANALYSIS, ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATION, EVAPORATION, CLIMATOLOGY, BIAS, STANDARD DEVIATION, WATER VAPOR, CONVECTION(ATMOSPHERIC).

Subject Categories : Meteorology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE