Accession Number : ADA299239

Title :   Using Decision Trees to Direct the Planning Thought-Process: An Enhancement to the Planning Methodology.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS

Personal Author(s) : Ng, Kok W.

PDF Url : ADA299239

Report Date : 02 JUN 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 127

Abstract : This study develops a planning methodology to enhance the current procedure for analyzing friendly courses of action (COAs). It will particularly enhance the way we consider enemy uncertainty during planning. Operations planners do not always account for possible enemy reactions rigorously when formulating friendly COAs. To overcome this, the study proposes to make the consideration of enemy options a more integral part of the planning methodology. The planning methodology we propose is built around the concept that a COA can be represented as a branch of a decision tree. It models the choice of friendly options as decision points and enemy responses as chance events. Planners' military judgments about possible enemy actions are represented as probabilities. Endstates are rank-ordered. The decision tree construct is used to direct the conduct of the wargame. It focuses the planning thought-process on foreclosing enemy options and inducing the enemy to take actions of our choice. The decision tree is also used as an analytical tool to compare COAs and to gain insights into how best to accomplish the mission. This study demonstrates the use of the proposed methodology with a brigade defense scenario. It concludes that the proposed methodology enhances COA analysis and facilitates better planning.

Descriptors :   *TREES, *DECISION THEORY, *DEFENSE PLANNING, METHODOLOGY, UNCERTAINTY, MILITARY DOCTRINE, BRIGADE LEVEL ORGANIZATIONS, CASE STUDIES, RESPONSE, PLANNING, WAR GAMES, ENEMY.

Subject Categories : Operations Research
      Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE