Accession Number : ADA300097

Title :   Tropical Cyclone Intensity Relationships.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH

Personal Author(s) : Kubat, Gary B.

PDF Url : ADA300097

Report Date : 10 SEP 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 97

Abstract : This paper provides a summary description of relationships between tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and sea surface temperatures (SST) wherein intensity is characterized in terms of both minimum central sea level pressure (MSLP) and maximum tangential wind velocity (VTmax). SSTs are represented as monthly mean climatological values on a one degree(lat x lon) grid spacing. Observational data for hurricanes and typhoons are from the Gray and Shea (1976) data summary and from the U.S. Navy Typhoon Analysis (TYAN) data set. Gridded upper-air data from the Climate Analysis Center are used to describe climatological upper air features. A highly variable range of TC intensity values is observed for each value of SST. These differences are largely due to several factors including variations in the inner-core structure of individual TCs, latitude, season and environmental influences. Knowledge of these variable relationships helps to explain much of the observed deviation from the standard Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) forecast relationships which are currently in use; the latter rely primarily on SST. An historical review of how MPI forecasts have been made is presented, as well as the likely route for further improvements of MPI forecasts. Variations of the commonly accepted pressure-wind relationship are analyzed and their practical limitations in operational meteorology are discussed. Extensive graphical and statistical information on intensity versus SST for different oceanic basins, latitude, and season is included in the appendices. (MM)

Descriptors :   *OCEAN SURFACE, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *MARINE METEOROLOGY, *TROPICAL CYCLONES, DATA BASES, THERMODYNAMICS, INTENSITY, THESES, BAROMETRIC PRESSURE, MIXED LAYER(MARINE), CLIMATOLOGY, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, SEA LEVEL, UPPER ATMOSPHERE, OCEAN BASINS, BUOYANCY, HURRICANES, TYPHOONS.

Subject Categories : Meteorology
      Physical and Dynamic Oceanography

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE