Accession Number : ADA300149

Title :   Risk Management Model of IIP Operations. Cost and Operational Effectiveness Analysis for Selected International Ice Patrol Mission Alternatives. Annex K.

Descriptive Note : Final rept. Jul 94-Jun 95,

Corporate Author : EER SYSTEMS CORP VIENNA VA

Personal Author(s) : Armacost, Robert L. ; Pet-Edwards, Julia

PDF Url : ADA300149

Report Date : MAY 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 18

Abstract : This report is Interim Report Volume 11 for the Cost and Operational Effectiveness Analysis for Ice Patrol Mission Analysis Study. The International Ice Patrol uses a set of integrated models with interactive analysis to evaluate reported iceberg sighting information and estimate the current positions of all known icebergs that may impact North Atlantic shipping. The objective of this model is to provide timely, accurate, and relevant information to the mariner regarding the location ot icebergs. In order to determine whether existing data and models are adequate, there is a need for a means to evaluate the risk and uncertainty associated with current lIP operations. A risk analysis depends on an uncertainty analysis which propagates the uncertainty in input elements (iceberg detection/classification, environmental factors, drift and deterioration models, resighting procedures, and numerous policies) to characterize the uncertainty in the output (the location of the LAKI). This report provides a foundation for risk analysis and develops an approach for modeling risk and uncertainty associated with IIP operations. Based on the sensitivity analyses of the drift and deterioration models, it is clear that an analytical representation for output uncertainty as a function of input uncertainty is not feasible. Instead, a promising approach is the use of Monte Carlo simulation utilizing the What-If OMPS model at IIP. (AN)

Descriptors :   *MATHEMATICAL MODELS, *RISK, *PATROLLING, *ICEBERGS, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, POSITION(LOCATION), UNCERTAINTY, OCEAN WAVES, POLICIES, COST EFFECTIVENESS, OCEAN SURFACE, PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS, ACCURACY, MONTE CARLO METHOD, OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS, OCEANOGRAPHIC DATA, DRIFT, APPROXIMATION(MATHEMATICS), AIR WATER INTERACTIONS, DETERIORATION, SEA STATES, NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN, SEA ICE, ICE REPORTING.

Subject Categories : Physical and Dynamic Oceanography
      Snow, Ice and Permafrost
      Operations Research

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE