Accession Number : ADA300517

Title :   The Utility of Quantitative Methods for Political Intelligence Analysis. A Case Study in Latin America

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH

Personal Author(s) : Levinson, Robert M.

PDF Url : ADA300517

Report Date : 20 OCT 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 110

Abstract : The paper examines the suitability of current intelligence analysis developed during the Cold War era and finds a lack of quantitative techniques that are prevalent in academic social science research. Several areas where quantitative research might be applied successfully to intelligence analysis are proposed. A case study examining political instability in Latin America is utilized to demonstrate how these techniques might be applied. Data is taken from the World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators for nineteen Latin American countries. Two simple models are developed using bivariate and multiple regression techniques applied to time series analysis. A scenario for how these models might be applied in the intelligence collection, analysis, and policy formation process is postulated. The paper concludes that quantitative methods can have significant utility for the intelligence community in concert with current analytical methods. Suggestions are provided as to how these techniques might be incorporated into the intelligence community.

Descriptors :   *INTELLIGENCE, *POLITICAL SCIENCE, GLOBAL, POLICIES, MODELS, TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, CASE STUDIES, COLD WAR, DATA ACQUISITION, HANDBOOKS, INSTABILITY, LATIN AMERICA, SOCIAL SCIENCES.

Subject Categories : Government and Political Science
      Psychology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE