Accession Number : ADA300974

Title :   Pharmaceutical Inventory Forecasting at the Wright-Patterson Medical Center.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF LOGISTICS AND ACQUIS ITION MANAGEMENT

Personal Author(s) : Reymann, Patrick J.

PDF Url : ADA300974

Report Date : SEP 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 216

Abstract : This research was conducted to determine the accuracy of statistical forecasting techniques forecasting the inventory of pharmaceutical items. Because pharmaceutical items are subject to a degree of seasonality of demand, the Director of Medical Logistics at the Wright-patterson Medical Center believed that the use of such techniques may provide a more accurate forecast for the items stocked by the Outpatient Pharmacy. In addition to the technique used by the Outpatient Pharmacy (the 12 month simple moving average) three statistical forecasting methods were employed: the 6 month simple moving average, simple exponential smoothing, and the Winter's exponential smoothing. These techniques were used to obtain forecasts, and the results were analyzed for measurement error. The Winter's exponential smoothing method prove superior in nearly all cases, and offers the best potential for use. jg p.13

Descriptors :   *FORECASTING, *INVENTORY, *MEDICAL SERVICES, *PHARMACIES, MEASUREMENT, METHODOLOGY, STATISTICS, THESES, ERRORS, LOGISTICS, AIR FORCE FACILITIES, PATIENTS, STATISTICAL PROCESSES, DRUGS.

Subject Categories : Medical Facilities, Equipment and Supplies
      Pharmacology
      Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE