Accession Number : ADA301079

Title :   Effects of Early Decisions on Later Judgments in an Evolving Situation.

Descriptive Note : Final rept. Sep 86-Mar 89,

Corporate Author : DECISION SCIENCE CONSORTIUM INC RESTON VA

Personal Author(s) : Tolcott, Martin A. ; Marvin, F. F. ; Lehner, Paul E.

PDF Url : ADA301079

Report Date : OCT 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 102

Abstract : Army intelligence analysts were given a realistic battlefield scenario and asked to make preliminary decisions about most likely enemy avenue of approach, and their confidence level. Subsequently, they were asked to reconsider their decisions in the light of updated intelligence reports containing some items which confirmed and some which contradicted their early decisions. Three such updating judgments were requested. Finally, they were asked to rate each information item in terms of the degree to which it supported or contradicted their hypothesis.

Descriptors :   *DECISION MAKING, *JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY), SCENARIOS, MILITARY STRATEGY, BATTALION LEVEL ORGANIZATIONS, ARMY PERSONNEL, BATTLEFIELDS, STRESS(PSYCHOLOGY), REASONING, WAR GAMES, DATA DISPLAYS, HYPOTHESES, ARMY OPERATIONS, PERCEPTION(PSYCHOLOGY), MILITARY PSYCHOLOGY, ARMY INTELLIGENCE, ANALYSTS, REACTION(PSYCHOLOGY).

Subject Categories : Psychology

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE