Accession Number : ADA301182

Title :   Statistical and Modeling Uncertainties in the Thermal Target Acquisition Model Improvement Program (TAMIP) Predictions.

Descriptive Note : Final rept. Jan-Jun 95,

Corporate Author : INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA

Personal Author(s) : Silk, James D.

PDF Url : ADA301182

Report Date : SEP 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 23

Abstract : We analyze the uncenainties that are associated with the Thermal Target Acquisition Model Improvement Program (TAMIP) target detection predictions. The deviations of the measured probabilities from the predicted ones are much smaller than for the previous model, but still exceed those that would be expected from the finite statistical samples. Therefore there is still some residual error in the prediction. We determine confidence limits on the predictor variable which are unbiased in the sense that they are accurate at both high and low detection probabilities. We validate the confidence interval using a second data set that was not used in the development of this phase of the target detection model.

Descriptors :   *MATHEMATICAL MODELS, *INFRARED DETECTION, *TARGET ACQUISITION, DATA BASES, UNCERTAINTY, OPTIMIZATION, COMPUTATIONS, VALIDATION, MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION, PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE, ACCURACY, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, ERRORS, TARGET DETECTION, THERMAL TARGETS, THERMAL IMAGES, CONFIDENCE LIMITS.

Subject Categories : Operations Research
      Infrared Detection and Detectors

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE