Accession Number : ADA301335

Title :   Model Development for Forecasting Traffic Management Office Shipping and Budget Requirements.

Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,

Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH

Personal Author(s) : Closson, Luke E., III

PDF Url : ADA301335

Report Date : SEP 1995

Pagination or Media Count : 58

Abstract : This research represents an attempt to develop a quantitative tool that could be used to forecast Traffic Management Office (IMO) budget requirements for freight movements at base level within Air Combat Command. Regression analysis, using aircraft flying hours, aircraft sorties, and wing manpower levels as independent variables to predict shipping costs, was used in this research project. Each of the independent variables was aggregated and disaggregated at various levels in an attempt to develop a simple but accurate model. The results seem to suggest that aircraft flying hours, aircraft sorties, and wing manpower levels are not accurate predictors of TMO freight shipping requirements. Of the three independent variables, the most useful was for forecasting IMU freight shipping requirements was the manpower variable, not aircraft flying hours or aircraft sorties as expected. because of these results, the author recommends the continued use of the current naive forecasting method until a better model is developed.

Descriptors :   *AIR TRANSPORTATION, *PLANNING PROGRAMMING BUDGETING, *MILITARY TRANSPORTATION, DATA BASES, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, MILITARY REQUIREMENTS, MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, COST EFFECTIVENESS, AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE, FORECASTING, TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, ACCURACY, THESES, MANPOWER, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, AIR LOGISTICS SUPPORT, COST MODELS, CARGO, AIR FORCE FACILITIES, RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS, AIR TRAFFIC, SHIPPING, AIR FORCE BUDGETS.

Subject Categories : Military Aircraft Operations
      Administration and Management
      Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE